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Darden University of Virginia (USA)
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Resolving Trade-Offs: From Simple Heuristics to Multicriteria Analysis
Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0914-EDecision AnalysisThis note discusses a variety of methods to assist intuition in complex situations with multiple objectives and a potentially large set of alternatives. It begins with heuristic rules, which are relatively simple ways to sort out alternatives without thinking too much about trade-offs. After discussing the reliability of such rules, it moves to multicriteria analysis, which is a more rational method of balancing conflicting objectives.Starting at €8.20
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Introduction to Optimization Models
Carraway, Robert L.Technical Note DARDEN-QA-0682-EDecision AnalysisWe refer to a model that uses mathematical programming to find an optimal quantity as an optimization model. Thus, an optimization model differs from an evaluation model in that it goes beyond simply evaluating the consequences of proposed alternatives: It actually identifies the “optimal” alternative. How does an optimization model accomplish this impressive task? In this age of readily available computing power and ever more user-friendly softw...Starting at €8.20
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Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.Technical Note DARDEN-QA-0734-EDecision AnalysisThis note emphasizes the idea that managers will often want to ask experts to express their opinions about important business risks using the precise language of probability. Examples are drawn from the 2008 financial crisis and involve value-at-risk financial reporting. The second half of this note explains how a manager might use a scoring rule to evaluate the quality of experts' probability forecasts. This note is intended to accompany an inst...Starting at €8.20
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A GLUM Primer: The Risk-Adjusted Expected Value
Pfeifer, Phillip E.; Bodily, Samuel E.; Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0849-EDecision AnalysisThe purpose of this note is to improve on the expected value criterion by incorporating the willingness and capability to take risk of a rational decision maker. First, this note will review the concept of expected net present value (ENPV) and demonstrate its limitations. Next, we introduce the notion of play capital, or the most one is willing to put at risk in view of one’s life circumstances, goals, and resources. Then, we introduce the genera...Starting at €8.20
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Project Scoping
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Ridgway, GriffithTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0960Decision AnalysisA project’s scope specifies the work needed to deliver a product, service, or result, given specified features and functions. At its core, scoping a project requires accurately predicting the allocation of resources for a given initiative in a way that forecasts answers to questions about performance, including timeline, cost, and deliverables. Such a skill is highly valued by organizations but is rarely taught formally. This technical note off...Starting at €8.20
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Analyzing Uncertainty: Probability Distributions and Simulation
Carraway, Robert L.Technical Note DARDEN-QA-0660-EDecision AnalysisThis note introduces simulation as a tool to analyze uncertainty in business decisions. It first observes the limitations of single point or simple range estimates of key uncertainties, thereby motivating the need to create a risk profile for any alternative that characterizes the full range of possible outcomes and their relative likelihoods. A simple example involving both a discrete and a continuous (triangle) distribution is used. The note is...Starting at €8.20
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nPlan: Breaking Biases in Project Planning
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Gruzdowich, EmilyTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0969-EDecision AnalysisRichard Palczynski, leader of the Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) project, had devoted the better half of the past five years to co-championing this project with senior leadership at Network Rail, the United Kingdom national rail operator. The project was now moving full steam ahead, with major vendor contracts worth billions in the process of being vetted and decided on before year´s end. However, there had also been major setbacks. Palczynski ...Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: Cloud Storage
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Andrasko, Joe; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0941-EDecision AnalysisGoogle Cloud Platform (GCP) offers Cloud Storage, a popular cloud computing resource for data storage. This note provides information about uploading data to Cloud Storage, creating BigQuery tables from data found in Cloud Storage, previewing files in Cloud Storage, and sharing Cloud Storage buckets.Starting at €8.20
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The Mathematics of Optimization
Carraway, Robert L.Technical Note DARDEN-QA-0683-EDecision AnalysisIn “Introduction to Optimization Models” (UVA-QA-0682), we explored the basics of using optimization models, or mathematical programming. In this technical note, we turn our attention to the mathematics underlying optimization. While not essential, a deeper understanding of the math can help you become a significantly more effective and efficient user of optimization models. It is well worth the investment if you anticipate using optimization on ...Starting at €8.20
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Introduction to Analytical Probability Distributions
Carraway, Robert L.; Jenkins, RobertTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0690-EDecision AnalysisThis technical note provides a mostly nontechnical introduction to analytical probability distributions. The distributions covered are: uniform, triangular, normal, Poisson, exponential, lognormal, and binomial.Starting at €8.20