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Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.Technical Note DARDEN-QA-0734-EDecision AnalysisThis note emphasizes the idea that managers will often want to ask experts to express their opinions about important business risks using the precise language of probability. Examples are drawn from the 2008 financial crisis and involve value-at-risk financial reporting. The second half of this note explains how a manager might use a scoring rule to evaluate the quality of experts' probability forecasts. This note is intended to accompany an inst...Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery ML
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0942-EDecision AnalysisGoogle Cloud Platform offers BigQuery ML, a popular cloud computing resource for developing data models. This note provides information about creating, evaluating, and deploying data models with BigQuery ML.Starting at €8.20
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Ballis's Benchmark (A) and (B) - Teaching Note
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Grushka-Cockayne, YaelTeaching Note DARDEN-F-1621TN-EFinanceTeaching note for product F-1621Starting at €0.00
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Yahoo's Acquisition of Tumblr
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Kritzer, AndrewCase DARDEN-QA-0818-EDecision AnalysisThis case works well to provide experience with developing a revenue growth forecast using time series analysis. Students are asked to run several exponential smoothing models to predict the growth in a high-profile social network's traffic from three years of monthly history. The model students select is used to forecast a stream of future revenues in a pro forma cash flow statement. This case is supported by a teaching note, an Excel spreadshee...Starting at €8.20
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PriceMax
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Grushka-Cockayne, YaelCase DARDEN-QA-0748-EDecision AnalysisA large general-merchandise retailer misses its fiscal year earnings-per-share guidance, so its CFO is charged with improving the firm's forecasts. This case presents the use of probability distributions for forecasting discrete and continuous uncertainties such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, including the benefit of ranges and distributions over point estimates. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forec...Starting at €8.20
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Scoring Expert Forecasts
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Grushka-Cockayne, YaelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0772-EDecision AnalysisThis technical note, based on the more comprehensive note, "Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts" (UVA-QA-0734), provides a streamlined presentation of Brier and log scores as tools for assessing forecasting records among a pool of experts. The note is designed to be used in conjunction with a forecasting exercise.Starting at €8.20
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Segmenting Clinton and Obama Voters
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Gupta, RohitCase DARDEN-QA-0807-EDecision AnalysisThe purpose of this case is to introduce data visualization, advanced regression techniques, and supervised learning. Students are asked to visualize data geographically and in scatterplots. They will use stepwise regression and regression trees to select a predictive model for forecasting data in a holdout sample. In a forecasting competition, they will submit their models to be tested for accuracy. Supervised learning techniques-such as trainin...Starting at €8.20
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Zillow Offers' "Volatile Error Rate"
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Boatright, BenjaminCase DARDEN-QA-0944-EDecision AnalysisIn November 2021, Zillow announced that it was planning to shut down Zillow Offers, its iBuying program that leveraged its home value algorithm to quickly purchase homes for later resale. Zillow made the announcement after its market capitalization dropped from $48.35 billion in February 2021 to $16 billion in November. Poor program performance in 2021 left the company with roughly $500 million in losses due to an extensive inventory of overpaid ...Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: Cloud Storage
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Andrasko, Joe; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0941-EDecision AnalysisGoogle Cloud Platform (GCP) offers Cloud Storage, a popular cloud computing resource for data storage. This note provides information about uploading data to Cloud Storage, creating BigQuery tables from data found in Cloud Storage, previewing files in Cloud Storage, and sharing Cloud Storage buckets.Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Andrasko, Joe; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0929-EDecision AnalysisGoogle Cloud Platform (GCP) offers a popular cloud computing resource for writing Structured Query Language (SQL) queries. The resource is called BigQuery. This note provides step-by-step information about accessing BigQuery and using it to upload and explore data. It also includes a quick-start guide.Starting at €8.20