SIGA Technologies: Profiting From Uncertainty

Description

An equity analyst at Nova Funds, an investment firm, is in the process of analyzing an investment in SIGA Technologies (SIGA), and potentially its competitor, PharmAthene Inc. (PIP). SIGA is currently the only company in the world that has developed a treatment for smallpox, with its ST-246. In late 2010, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced the intention to award SIGA a contract valued at up to $2.8 billion, which significantly exceeds SIGA’s current market value, making the company potentially an excellent investment. However, SIGA is prevented from realizing the profit on this contract due to two uncertainties. First, PIP, a partner throughout the development of the ST-246, has sued SIGA over the rights of the ST-246, with the payout of the lawsuit unknown. Second, since the HHS announcement is for the intention to award the contract, the actual contract for SIGA may take on various possibilities. Given these uncertainties, the equity analyst needs to find ways to invest in the situations that produce the most attractive outcome. She may potentially invest by buying or shorting the stocks of the companies involved or through the use of options. Moreover, she may do this over multiple timeframes, if that is justified.

Learning Objective

This case covers decision trees, simulation, optimization, and histograms. The solution will require students to understand the following concepts: ·Present value analysis to calculate discounted (present) value. ·Mechanics of publicly traded call and put options, and their pay-offs.Buying stock versus short-selling stock.

Keywords

Decision trees Evaluating Alternatives Investments optimization Simulation Uncertainty