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Eliciting and Evaluating Expert Forecasts
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.Technical Note DARDEN-QA-0734-EDecision AnalysisThis note emphasizes the idea that managers will often want to ask experts to express their opinions about important business risks using the precise language of probability. Examples are drawn from the 2008 financial crisis and involve value-at-risk financial reporting. The second half of this note explains how a manager might use a scoring rule to evaluate the quality of experts' probability forecasts. This note is intended to accompany an inst...Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery ML
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0942-EDecision AnalysisGoogle Cloud Platform offers BigQuery ML, a popular cloud computing resource for developing data models. This note provides information about creating, evaluating, and deploying data models with BigQuery ML.Starting at €8.20
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Ballis's Benchmark (A) and (B) - Teaching Note
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Grushka-Cockayne, YaelTeaching Note DARDEN-F-1621TN-EFinanceTeaching note for product F-1621Starting at €0.00
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Yahoo's Acquisition of Tumblr
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Kritzer, AndrewCase DARDEN-QA-0818-EDecision AnalysisThis case works well to provide experience with developing a revenue growth forecast using time series analysis. Students are asked to run several exponential smoothing models to predict the growth in a high-profile social network's traffic from three years of monthly history. The model students select is used to forecast a stream of future revenues in a pro forma cash flow statement. This case is supported by a teaching note, an Excel spreadshee...Starting at €8.20
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Segmenting Clinton and Obama Voters
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Gupta, RohitCase DARDEN-QA-0807-EDecision AnalysisThe purpose of this case is to introduce data visualization, advanced regression techniques, and supervised learning. Students are asked to visualize data geographically and in scatterplots. They will use stepwise regression and regression trees to select a predictive model for forecasting data in a holdout sample. In a forecasting competition, they will submit their models to be tested for accuracy. Supervised learning techniques-such as trainin...Starting at €8.20
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Zillow Offers' "Volatile Error Rate"
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Boatright, BenjaminCase DARDEN-QA-0944-EDecision AnalysisIn November 2021, Zillow announced that it was planning to shut down Zillow Offers, its iBuying program that leveraged its home value algorithm to quickly purchase homes for later resale. Zillow made the announcement after its market capitalization dropped from $48.35 billion in February 2021 to $16 billion in November. Poor program performance in 2021 left the company with roughly $500 million in losses due to an extensive inventory of overpaid ...Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery Explainable AI
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0943-EDecision AnalysisMachine-learning (ML) models have become a common tool used across a multitude of industries to help people make decisions. As these models have increased in predictive power, many have also grown in complexity. The pursuit to improve the accuracy of predictions has diminished the interpretability of many models—leaving users with little understanding of the model’s behavior or trust in its predictions. The field of eXplainable artificial intelli...Starting at €8.20
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Google Cloud Platform: BigQuery Explainable AI
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Boatright, BenjaminTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0943Decision AnalysisMachine-learning (ML) models have become a common tool used across a multitude of industries to help people make decisions. As these models have increased in predictive power, many have also grown in complexity. The pursuit to improve the accuracy of predictions has diminished the interpretability of many models—leaving users with little understanding of the model’s behavior or trust in its predictions. The field of eXplainable artificial intelli...Starting at €8.20
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PriceMax
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.; Grushka-Cockayne, YaelCase DARDEN-QA-0748-EDecision AnalysisA large general-merchandise retailer misses its fiscal year earnings-per-share guidance, so its CFO is charged with improving the firm's forecasts. This case presents the use of probability distributions for forecasting discrete and continuous uncertainties such as GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, including the benefit of ranges and distributions over point estimates. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forec...Starting at €8.20
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Surveying Professional Forecasters
Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C. Jr.Case DARDEN-QA-0805-EDecision AnalysisThis case illustrates how averaging point forecasts harnesses the wisdom of crowds. Students access data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and compare the performance of the crowd (i.e., the average point forecasts) to the average performance of the individual panelists and the best performer from the previous period.The case is intended for use in a class on forecasting, and the instructor can present it in three ways: with all n...Starting at €8.20