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Subjective Decisions, Perception and Time
Baucells Alibés, Manel; García-Castro, RobertoTechnical Note ADN-288-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsRecently, the way people commonly deal with decisions involving time has become an important research topic for economists and psychologists alike. This note offers a summary of some of the main results, which have applications in understanding consumer behavior and also in everyday life to help us make better decisions. This note is based on the note "Time, Perception and Decision-Making" from Manel Baucells and Lucy Chatburn, ADN-264-E.Starting at €8.20
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Risk Preferences and the Role of Intuition Under Uncertainty
Baucells Alibés, Manel; Heukamp, FranzTechnical Note ADN-287-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsManagers typically make their decisions under many constraints (time, resources, skills, emotions, and ability to process vast information) that limit their "rationality." Therefore, they frequently rely on intuition when making decisions. This note describes some of the common mistakes of intuitive decision making. Learning about mistakes does not eliminate them but it does allow us to recognize situations in which a particular error is likely ...Starting at €8.20
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Basics of statistics
Bardolet Urgellès, David; Baucells Alibés, Manel; Gómez, JavierTechnical Note ADN-256-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsThis technical note reviews the most basic concepts of statistics. Some measures of centrality (mean and median) are introduced, along with the most commonly used measures of variability (variance, standard deviation and range). The note is intended for students who need to revise the basic concepts that will later be used in the quantitative analysis courses.Starting at €8.20
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Introduction to Optimization
Cabot, J.; Baucells Alibés, ManelTechnical Note ADN-265-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsThis note introduces the available procedures to tackle three common types of optimization problems: Non-linear, linear, and integer optimization. In each case, we provide examples of real applications, and introduce the corresponding optimization procedures to solve them. It also reviews heuristic procedures to tackle more general problems. Three appendices explain (1) the graphical intuition of LP in the case of 2 decision variables, (2) the us...Starting at €8.20
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Auctions and Bidding
Baucells Alibés, ManelTechnical Note ADN-261-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsThis note introduces and analyses the four basic types of auctions: the ascending bid auction (oral or English auction), the descending bid auction (Dutch auction), the first-price sealed bid auction, and the second-price sealed bid auction. The author discusses the optimal bidding strategies for each type of auction under certain assumptions. The note includes an Exhibit that derives the optimal equilibrium strategies in first-price sealed bid a...Starting at €8.20
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Math skills warm-up
Bardolet Urgellès, David; Baucells Alibés, Manel; Gómez, JavierTechnical Note ADN-255-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsThis technical note reviews some basic concepts of mathematics. It brushes up some notions of arithmetic and percentages, and provides a brief review of equations and the functions of a variable. At the end, it includes a few related exercises. The note is aimed at students who need to revise the basic concepts that will later be used in the quantitative analysis courses.Starting at €8.20
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Linear combination of uncertainties
Baucells Alibés, ManelTechnical Note ADN-260-EDecision Analysis, EconomicsThis note introduces the formulas for calculating the mean and standard deviation of a linear combination of uncertainties. Correlation is considered. The formulas are illustrated with several examples and applications. The note briefly introduces the Central Limit Theorem and the case of products of independent variables.Starting at €8.20
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Group Decision Making and Prediction Markets
Lobanova A.; Baucells Alibés, ManelTechnical Note ADN-266-EInformation Technologies, Knowledge and CommunicationThis technical note explains how Internet based prediction markets work in many circumstances to produce reliable forecasts. It also discusses how to improve accuracy in prediction tasks performed by groups or committees.Starting at €8.20
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Dealing with Conflicting Objectives: Multicriteria Analysis and Heuristics
Baucells Alibés, Manel; Lobanova A.Technical Note ADN-271-EDecision Analysis, Economics, Knowledge and CommunicationThe note is divided in two parts. The first part of this note explains how to apply a standard methodology to make explicit trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The second part, explores decision rules or heuristics that people often use to avoid making trade-offs, and discusses the reliability of such rules.Starting at €8.20