Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008

The person responsible for global allocation for a large pension fund had been asked by the board of directors in April 2008 for an assessment on whether she thinks the dollar would appreciate or depreciate over the next five to ten years. She has heard mostly negative views about path of the dollar over the long term, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s suggestion that the Gulf States, and others, should de-link from the U.S. dollar as a way to contain inflationary pressures. Currently, the fund is 60% in dollar-based assets and 40% in foreign markets. The dollar’s sharp decline against a broad array of currencies, central banks diversifying reserves away from dollars, and some OPEC members invoicing oil-sales currencies in other than dollars are discouraging news. She considers whether to increase the foreign weighting and, because the dollar has overshot its "long-term value," whether it is now more likely to appreciate than depreciate, and finally whether the fund should use the recent dollar pessimism as an opportunity to take profits on its foreign positions and increase the weighting on the now relatively cheap U.S. securities.