This website uses technical, customisation and analytical cookies, both first-party and third-party, to anonymously facilitate browsing and analyse statistics on use of the website. Learn more
Search results
-
A GLUM Primer: The Risk-Adjusted Expected Value
Pfeifer, Phillip E.; Bodily, Samuel E.; Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0849-EDecision AnalysisThe purpose of this note is to improve on the expected value criterion by incorporating the willingness and capability to take risk of a rational decision maker. First, this note will review the concept of expected net present value (ENPV) and demonstrate its limitations. Next, we introduce the notion of play capital, or the most one is willing to put at risk in view of one’s life circumstances, goals, and resources. Then, we introduce the genera...Starting at €8.20
-
Updating Probabilities
Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0860-EDecision AnalysisIndividuals' judgement of probabilities—the likelihood of different events to occur, or the attribution of likely causes to what has occurred—is plagued by numerous biases and errors. This note focuses on Bayesian updating and the base rate neglect, and also provides a brief overview of other biases, including overconfidence, reversion to the mean, the law of small numbers, the conjunction fallacy, confirming evidence bias, and hindsight bias. Nu...Starting at €8.20
-
Resolving Trade-Offs: From Simple Heuristics to Multicriteria Analysis
Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0914-EDecision AnalysisThis note discusses a variety of methods to assist intuition in complex situations with multiple objectives and a potentially large set of alternatives. It begins with heuristic rules, which are relatively simple ways to sort out alternatives without thinking too much about trade-offs. After discussing the reliability of such rules, it moves to multicriteria analysis, which is a more rational method of balancing conflicting objectives.Starting at €8.20
-
Behavioral Time Discounting
Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0896-EDecision AnalysisMany decisions involve trade-offs between present and future costs and benefits. We procrastinate difficult tasks, and we forgo larger rewards for smaller ones if we can get them sooner. Why do we change our minds about the value of upcoming events? The traditional discounting model, which predicts how individuals discount future consequences and resolve trade-offs between present and future costs and benefits, does not account for this observed ...Starting at €8.20
-
Introduction to Dynamic Programming
Baucells, Manel; Zorc, SasaTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0955-EDecision AnalysisThis technical note introduces dynamic programming (DP), a powerful tool for finding optimal solutions to complex problems that involve a concatenation of multiple decisions. This note assumes some familiarity with decision trees. Compared to decision trees, DP simplifies the problem representation by pooling together similar decision situations, allowing us to apply backward induction in batches by means of the Bellman equation. The note stresse...Starting at €8.20
-
Behavioral Risk Preferences
Baucells, ManelTechnical Note DARDEN-QA-0858-EDecision AnalysisMBA students are taught to use the expected monetary value (EV) to evaluate risky opportunities. The reaction of individuals to risk, however, is far more complex. In fact, individuals are rarely found to be consistently risk neutral, risk averse, or risk seeking. They can be all these things, depending on whether the probabilities are small or large, or the outcomes are gains or losses. The purpose of this note is to introduce a behavioral model...Starting at €8.20