Note on Scenario Planning in High-Uncertainty Environments: The Disruption Matrix

The coronavirus pandemic is an unexpected external event with a profound impact on demand in all sectors that is highly conditioned by decisions that correspond to external stakeholders. After overcoming their initial shock, within this context companies have to think about their future in two or three years; however, it is very difficult for the management team to plan and define a clear strategy when it remains unknown when and how they will be able to carry out their business activity. In addition, there is no one singular uncertainty in which case a contingency plan could be developed; instead, the uncertainty exists on many levels, with significant implications. The circumstances have accelerated management trends that, to a greater or lesser extent, were already on many companies radars, such as: digitization, omnichannel operations, organizational agility, and sustainability. In addition, brands and companies have learned the importance of having and consistently demonstrating their purpose.